Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4946 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4946 DFW 07:30 → OKC 08:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 2734 DFW 17:26 → OKC 18:41 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4946 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:30	OKC 08:50	10%	4%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 1902 American Flight history →	DFW 09:25	OKC 10:43	15%	5%	0.8%	82%
MQ 3555 Envoy	DFW 18:55	OKC 20:04	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 3099 American	DFW 10:49	OKC 12:07	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	DFW 13:19	OKC 14:34	20%	8%	0.7%	77%
AA 2812 American Flight history →	DFW 16:23	OKC 17:38	24%	12%	0.8%	27%
AA 2832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:59	OKC 16:14	25%	11%	0.8%	65%
AA 2734 American Flight history →	DFW 17:26	OKC 18:41	27%	12%	0.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON