Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2135 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2135 DFW 07:15 → OMA 09:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2270 DFW 17:11 → OMA 19:11 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2135 American	DFW 07:15	OMA 09:17	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2823 American Flight history →	DFW 09:31	OMA 11:32	17%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	DFW 13:53	OMA 15:54	22%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	DFW 17:11	OMA 19:11	27%	8%	0.7%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON