Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1820 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1820 DFW 08:29 → ONT 09:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 3006 DFW 17:58 → ONT 19:16 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1820 American Flight history →	DFW 08:29	ONT 09:52	14%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	DFW 12:15	ONT 13:42	15%	5%	0.8%	84%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	DFW 10:49	ONT 12:10	16%	5%	0.8%	74%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:30	ONT 19:07	22%	9%	0.8%	79%
AA 3006 American Flight history →	DFW 17:58	ONT 19:16	27%	8%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON