Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2282 American Flight history →	DFW 10:30	ORF 14:48	14%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 2288 American Flight history →	DFW 13:59	ORF 18:14	19%	6%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:51 → ATL 09:02DL 401	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:18 → ORF 12:05DL 2755	5h 14m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:15DL 2925	6h 30m	99%	90%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 12:16 → ORF 15:41UA 2807	7h 33m	99%	89%
American Details →	DFW 05:56 → LGA 10:37AA 2925	2h 37m New York	LGA 13:14 → ORF 14:55AA 4358 · flown by Republic	7h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	59m Detroit	DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:57DL 3066	5h 37m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → ORF 20:18DL 2984	7h 01m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59DL 454	2h 10m New York	JFK 15:09 → ORF 16:33DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor	7h 18m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:29DL 2731	7h 39m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON