Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 415 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 415 DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3242 DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 415 American Flight history →	DFW 07:30	PHL 11:52	10%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 2255 American	DFW 08:29	PHL 13:00	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 402 American Flight history →	DFW 09:38	PHL 14:00	18%	6%	0.8%	74%
AA 3147 American	DFW 12:13	PHL 16:44	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 2970 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 10:00	PHL 14:36	20%	8%	1.2%	72%
AA 891 American	DFW 13:28	PHL 18:03	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2213 American	DFW 14:20	PHL 18:51	28%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1945 American Flight history →	DFW 16:18	PHL 20:56	28%	11%	0.8%	63%
AA 3242 American Flight history →	DFW 18:35	PHL 22:57	29%	11%	0.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON