Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2905 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2905 DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3110 DFW 18:54 → PHX 19:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2905 American	DFW 10:20	PHX 11:06	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 474 American Flight history →	DFW 07:08	PHX 07:34	12%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 359 American	DFW 11:29	PHX 12:14	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 520 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	PHX 09:29	14%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 336 American Flight history →	DFW 12:26	PHX 13:12	16%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 1548 American Flight history →	DFW 13:33	PHX 14:19	17%	7%	0.7%	92%
AA 1232 American	DFW 16:25	PHX 17:14	18%	8%	0.8%	no record
F9 3971 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:54	PHX 12:26	19%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 2108 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	PHX 14:57	23%	8%	0.7%	60%
AA 2047 American Flight history →	DFW 17:26	PHX 18:14	25%	9%	0.7%	76%
AA 3110 American	DFW 18:54	PHX 19:35	25%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON