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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2312 American Flight history → DFW 13:55 PWM 19:10 24% 7% 0.7% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 6h 40m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 773 3h 06m Denver DEN 10:00 → PWM 15:55UA 372 9h 10m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 56m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 5h 35m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091 1h 36m Charlotte CLT 10:14 → PWM 12:53AA 1744 6h 58m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 3h 08m Charlotte CLT 13:52 → PWM 16:31AA 1747 8h 31m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:00 → EWR 10:29UA 1847 1h 30m Newark EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic 6h 25m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623 3h 38m Washington DCA 14:37 → PWM 16:32AA 1423 8h 30m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DFW 08:38 → ORD 11:14AA 328 1h 52m Chicago ORD 13:06 → PWM 16:41AA 4741 · flown by Republic 7h 03m 96% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON