Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 3330 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–32%.

Safest bet that day F9 3330 DFW 08:35 → RDU 12:36 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 979 DFW 17:43 → RDU 21:34 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3330 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:35	RDU 12:36	10%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 2683 American Flight history →	DFW 07:12	RDU 11:16	10%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	DFW 09:39	RDU 13:38	17%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	DFW 12:09	RDU 16:09	20%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 1888 American Flight history →	DFW 14:46	RDU 18:48	27%	8%	0.8%	71%
AA 979 American Flight history →	DFW 17:43	RDU 21:34	32%	10%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON