Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3778 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3778 DFW 07:14 → RIC 11:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 3037 DFW 18:55 → RIC 22:57 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:14	RIC 11:11	6%	2%	0.8%	100%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	DFW 10:17	RIC 14:23	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	DFW 14:40	RIC 18:47	24%	7%	0.8%	70%
AA 3037 American Flight history →	DFW 18:55	RIC 22:57	25%	7%	0.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON