Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1911 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1911 DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3251 DFW 18:05 → RNO 19:32 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1911 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	RNO 10:11	17%	3%	1.1%	83%
AA 324 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	RNO 13:17	22%	5%	1.1%	73%
AA 3251 American Flight history →	DFW 18:05	RNO 19:32	34%	8%	1.2%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON