Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2740 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2740 DFW 09:33 → RSW 13:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 1267 DFW 18:51 → RSW 22:38 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2740 American Flight history →	DFW 09:33	RSW 13:22	18%	5%	1.9%	77%
AA 2736 American Flight history →	DFW 13:58	RSW 17:56	25%	8%	2.1%	64%
AA 1267 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	RSW 22:38	30%	10%	2.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON