Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1794 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1794 DFW 07:13 → SAN 08:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1425 DFW 17:56 → SAN 19:01 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1794 American	DFW 07:13	SAN 08:32	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2034 American Flight history →	DFW 09:19	SAN 10:38	25%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 1769 American	DFW 13:12	SAN 14:32	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2266 American	DFW 16:44	SAN 18:05	30%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 3109 American	DFW 11:13	SAN 12:25	30%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2361 American Flight history →	DFW 14:41	SAN 16:02	31%	10%	0.9%	69%
AS 780 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 19:24	SAN 20:29	31%	9%	0.7%	48%
AS 551 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 14:52	SAN 15:54	32%	9%	0.7%	58%
AA 1789 American	DFW 17:59	SAN 19:13	36%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1243 American Flight history →	DFW 19:02	SAN 20:03	36%	11%	1.1%	58%
F9 1425 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:56	SAN 19:01	37%	13%	1.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON