Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 4039 at 09:53 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4039 DFW 09:53 → SAT 11:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 546 DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4039 Envoy	DFW 09:53	SAT 11:06	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2759 American Flight history →	DFW 09:02	SAT 10:26	12%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 1836 American Flight history →	DFW 07:34	SAT 08:40	14%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 3899 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:24	SAT 18:37	14%	3%	0.8%	62%
AA 2768 American	DFW 12:12	SAT 13:32	15%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 413 American Flight history →	DFW 10:35	SAT 11:55	16%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 791 American	DFW 13:52	SAT 15:15	17%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	DFW 14:26	SAT 15:46	21%	9%	0.8%	67%
AA 2374 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	SAT 17:49	27%	11%	0.8%	53%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	DFW 18:27	SAT 19:48	27%	10%	0.8%	59%
AA 546 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	SAT 21:03	33%	11%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON