Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4058 DFW 09:03 → SAV 12:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2048 DFW 10:49 → SAV 14:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4058 Envoy	DFW 09:03	SAV 12:46	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4169 Envoy	DFW 15:34	SAV 19:05	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2048 American Flight history →	DFW 10:49	SAV 14:25	14%	5%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON