Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 10:04, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1822 American	DFW 10:04	SBA 11:31	16%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	95%	88%
American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	2h 32m Phoenix	PHX 10:06 → SBA 11:56AA 2928	6h 48m	97%	81%
United Details →	DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790	2h 42m San Francisco	SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578	7h 52m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	DFW 19:24 → SAN 20:29AS 780	2h 03m San Diego	SAN 22:32 → SBA 23:44AS 2175 · flown by Horizon	6h 20m	91%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON