Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3791 at 09:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3791 DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2212 DFW 18:13 → SDF 21:31 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	SDF 12:48	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
MQ 4051 Envoy	DFW 08:04	SDF 11:18	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:02	SDF 17:16	13%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 2813 American	DFW 12:09	SDF 15:27	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2049 American Flight history →	DFW 15:35	SDF 18:55	30%	10%	0.8%	46%
AA 2212 American	DFW 18:13	SDF 21:31	31%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON