Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 804 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 804 DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2009 DFW 19:32 → SEA 21:45 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 804 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:30	SEA 08:46	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
AS 543 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 06:24	SEA 08:45	13%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 1806 Delta	DFW 17:36	SEA 19:39	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 707 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SEA 09:25	18%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 767 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	SEA 10:50	20%	4%	0.7%	74%
AS 415 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 13:02	SEA 15:23	21%	4%	0.7%	83%
AS 365 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 09:00	SEA 11:20	22%	3%	0.7%	77%
AS 321 Alaska	DFW 16:02	SEA 17:57	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 717 American Flight history →	DFW 10:50	SEA 13:08	24%	5%	0.7%	76%
AS 322 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 18:03	SEA 20:24	26%	5%	0.8%	56%
AA 757 American Flight history →	DFW 12:17	SEA 14:31	27%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 1483 American	DFW 17:32	SEA 19:41	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 727 American Flight history →	DFW 14:33	SEA 16:47	32%	7%	0.7%	57%
AA 2009 American Flight history →	DFW 19:32	SEA 21:45	32%	7%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON