Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 790 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 790 DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1430 DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 790 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	SFO 07:47	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 1949 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SFO 08:53	17%	5%	1.1%	78%
UA 1922 United	DFW 11:00	SFO 12:41	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2413 United Flight history →	DFW 15:40	SFO 17:51	25%	12%	0.6%	50%
AA 2309 American	DFW 08:29	SFO 10:32	25%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2325 American Flight history →	DFW 13:13	SFO 14:59	32%	8%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
AA 2387 American Flight history →	DFW 11:24	SFO 13:06	32%	9%	1.0%	57%
AA 2333 American	DFW 17:31	SFO 19:19	36%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	37%	12%	1.0%	43%
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	39%	12%	1.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON