Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3952 DFW 10:57 → SGF 12:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest MQ 3591 DFW 17:37 → SGF 19:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3952 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:57	SGF 12:24	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 4331 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:50	SGF 09:25	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 4328 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:29	SGF 10:56	7%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:26	SGF 13:53	7%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:08	SGF 15:35	10%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 4311 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:47	SGF 18:14	12%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 3671 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:01	SGF 20:31	12%	4%	0.8%	70%
MQ 3591 Envoy	DFW 17:37	SGF 19:04	12%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON