Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4009 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day AA 4009 DFW 08:34 → SHV 09:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 6410 DFW 17:21 → SHV 18:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:34	SHV 09:46	6%	2%	1.0%	92%
MQ 3479 Envoy	DFW 12:30	SHV 13:36	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
OO 6331 SkyWest	DFW 10:01	SHV 11:11	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 6245 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:10	SHV 20:20	17%	6%	0.8%	74%
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:21	SHV 18:31	17%	7%	1.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON