tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 13:45, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2046 American Flight history → DFW 09:25 SJC 11:18 12% 3% 0.8% 77%
AA 2834 American Flight history → DFW 11:58 SJC 13:56 15% 4% 0.7% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 773 1h 06m Denver DEN 08:00 → SJC 09:40UA 2031 5h 55m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798 3h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 7h 56m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 10m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 6h 50m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 10h 46m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 2h 46m Phoenix PHX 10:20 → SJC 12:22AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 7h 14m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:24 → ATL 19:36DL 921 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 25m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049 3h 10m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 8h 00m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON