Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1291 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1291 DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 558 DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1291 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:45	SLC 09:31	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:30	SLC 14:20	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1878 American	DFW 09:01	SLC 11:04	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	DFW 14:31	SLC 16:18	16%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 1539 Delta	DFW 18:11	SLC 19:47	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1871 American	DFW 11:33	SLC 13:28	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 3277 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:13	SLC 18:02	24%	8%	0.9%	84%
AA 1456 American Flight history →	DFW 14:03	SLC 15:54	28%	8%	0.8%	62%
AA 558 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	SLC 20:34	32%	10%	1.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON