Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1686 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1686 DFW 07:15 → SNA 08:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 806 DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1686 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	SNA 08:39	11%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	DFW 08:28	SNA 09:55	13%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 1939 American	DFW 09:35	SNA 11:01	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2465 American Flight history →	DFW 12:21	SNA 13:48	15%	5%	0.8%	84%
AA 1933 American	DFW 11:29	SNA 12:56	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:29	SNA 15:57	18%	5%	0.8%	80%
F9 3325 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:30	SNA 10:00	19%	5%	0.9%	68%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:18	SNA 17:46	19%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	22%	5%	1.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON