Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 4072 at 13:23, 25%.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4072 Envoy	DFW 13:23	SRQ 17:07	25%	5%	3.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:51 → ATL 09:02DL 401	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → SRQ 12:26DL 3104	5h 35m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → SRQ 21:32DL 1057	6h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:19DL 3115	7h 34m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 11m	99%	84%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	7h 04m	97%	78%
American Details →	DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 10:18 → SRQ 12:14AA 1452	6h 19m	98%	74%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	3h 53m Charlotte	CLT 19:29 → SRQ 21:25AA 2604	8h 30m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON