Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 4074 at 10:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4074 DFW 10:33 → STL 12:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2761 DFW 18:02 → STL 19:53 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4074 Envoy	DFW 10:33	STL 12:32	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3333 American	DFW 07:44	STL 09:45	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 1524 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:36	STL 09:48	14%	4%	0.7%	84%
AA 3944 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:46	STL 16:38	16%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	DFW 12:58	STL 14:57	22%	6%	0.7%	57%
AA 2487 American Flight history →	DFW 18:00	STL 19:59	28%	8%	0.8%	50%
AA 2761 American Flight history →	DFW 18:02	STL 19:53	31%	8%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON