Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 421 at 19:25, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 421 American Flight history →	DFW 19:25	SYR 23:40	33%	11%	1.0%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991	7h 03m	99%	86%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 773	3h 01m Denver	DEN 09:55 → SYR 15:27UA 211	8h 42m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690	6h 53m	99%	83%
American Details →	DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 10:39 → SYR 12:42AA 2730	6h 47m	98%	81%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 13:50 → SYR 15:54AA 1950	7h 54m	100%	81%
American Details →	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont	6h 04m	94%	80%
United Details →	DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639	1h 09m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → SYR 14:04UA 4499 · flown by GoJet	5h 44m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59DL 454	1h 35m New York	JFK 14:34 → SYR 16:11DL 5328 · flown by Endeavor	6h 56m	96%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 16:10 → LGA 20:51DL 869	54m New York	LGA 21:45 → SYR 23:12DL 5524 · flown by Endeavor	6h 02m	69%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON