Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2516 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2516 DFW 07:14 → TPA 11:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2401 DFW 18:30 → TPA 22:08 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2516 American Flight history →	DFW 07:14	TPA 11:01	12%	3%	0.8%	84%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	DFW 09:52	TPA 13:32	19%	4%	1.2%	76%
AA 1957 American	DFW 12:56	TPA 16:44	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
F9 2402 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:20	TPA 19:11	24%	6%	1.0%	74%
AA 2256 American Flight history →	DFW 18:26	TPA 22:08	34%	8%	1.0%	37%
AA 2512 American Flight history →	DFW 15:32	TPA 19:19	35%	8%	0.9%	67%
AA 2401 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	TPA 22:08	36%	8%	1.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON