Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4063 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4063 DFW 07:17 → TUL 08:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2830 DFW 16:28 → TUL 17:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4063 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:17	TUL 08:37	8%	2%	0.8%	95%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	DFW 08:34	TUL 09:55	14%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 3715 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:34	TUL 19:48	15%	4%	0.9%	60%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	DFW 10:37	TUL 11:58	17%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	DFW 14:10	TUL 15:30	23%	7%	0.9%	85%
AA 2830 American	DFW 16:28	TUL 17:52	25%	10%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON