Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1014 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1014 DFW 08:20 → TUS 08:38 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 584 DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1014 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	TUS 08:38	15%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 2187 American	DFW 10:49	TUS 11:24	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2926 American Flight history →	DFW 12:11	TUS 12:26	22%	6%	0.8%	68%
AA 3140 American	DFW 17:02	TUS 17:39	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 584 American Flight history →	DFW 14:46	TUS 15:01	32%	8%	0.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON