Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 11:53, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4199 Envoy	DFW 11:53	TVC 15:35	17%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	95%	86%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 773	3h 02m Denver	DEN 09:56 → TVC 14:49UA 2420	8h 04m	100%	83%
American Details →	DFW 05:47 → ORD 08:13AA 2999	3h 44m Chicago	ORD 11:57 → TVC 14:10AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	5h 39m	96%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON