Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5593 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21%.

Safest bet that day AA 5593 DFW 07:51 → TYS 11:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2550 DFW 13:25 → TYS 16:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 07:51	TYS 11:13	11%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	DFW 09:33	TYS 12:51	13%	4%	1.2%	82%
AA 5309 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:16	TYS 19:29	21%	7%	0.9%	70%
AA 5346 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 18:29	TYS 21:42	21%	8%	1.1%	73%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	DFW 13:25	TYS 16:44	21%	7%	1.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON