Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 4111 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4111 DFW 07:19 → XNA 08:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2967 DFW 11:42 → XNA 13:09 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4111 Envoy	DFW 07:19	XNA 08:38	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3603 Envoy	DFW 08:34	XNA 09:57	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:53	XNA 14:17	10%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:06	XNA 15:27	11%	3%	0.8%	79%
MQ 3605 Envoy	DFW 18:04	XNA 19:23	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2025 American	DFW 09:38	XNA 11:05	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2150 American	DFW 16:29	XNA 17:56	21%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 2967 American	DFW 11:42	XNA 13:09	21%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON