Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2854 American Flight history →	DSM 07:04	CLT 10:30	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 2962 American Flight history →	DSM 13:23	CLT 16:47	16%	4%	0.8%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139	6h 32m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	6h 55m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 07m	93%	83%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	3h 21m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	8h 42m	99%	83%
American Details →	DSM 05:12 → DFW 07:23AA 2326	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:59 → CLT 13:41AA 2493	7h 29m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 38m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	5h 16m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	5h 49m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	4h 30m	66%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON