tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5238 PSA DSM 05:59 DCA 09:25 14% 5% 1.4% no record
YX 4435 Republic DSM 14:14 DCA 17:52 17% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 6h 06m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → DSM 06:58 → ORD 08:34AA 4383 · flown by Republic 1h 30m Chicago ORD 10:04 → DCA 13:22AA 315 5h 24m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → DSM 05:12 → DFW 07:23AA 2326 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 30m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 5h 58m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 6h 15m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → DSM 08:00 → ORD 09:32UA 2668 3h 13m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 6h 52m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:01 → IAH 17:25UA 6117 · flown by Mesa 2h 25m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 7h 58m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → DSM 13:23 → CLT 16:47AA 2962 3h 50m Charlotte CLT 20:37 → DCA 22:24AA 2432 8h 01m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON