Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1982 at 06:20, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1982 United Flight history →	DSM 06:20	IAH 08:49	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 6117 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DSM 15:01	IAH 17:25	20%	8%	1.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DSM 05:12 → DFW 07:23AA 2326	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:28 → IAH 11:48AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 36m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 52m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	6h 59m	99%	84%
United Details →	DSM 08:00 → ORD 09:32UA 2668	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	7h 40m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644	6h 45m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673	6h 24m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:45 → MSP 15:58DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	6h 50m	96%	81%
United Details →	DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521	3h 10m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	7h 50m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON