Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 649 at 11:51, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 649 Southwest	DSM 11:51	LAS 12:58	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	3h 06m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 53m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	8h 21m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	7h 36m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	7h 16m	98%	81%
United Details →	DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521	3h 08m Denver	DEN 13:28 → LAS 14:28UA 493	7h 14m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:40DL 919	10h 10m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:45 → MSP 15:58DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246	7h 35m	96%	80%
United Details →	DSM 08:00 → ORD 09:32UA 2668	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 10:52 → LAS 12:46UA 1803	6h 46m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DSM 16:21 → DFW 18:32AA 1664	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771	5h 50m	65%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON