Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 6409 at 18:59, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 18:59	LAX 20:36	19%	7%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 31m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	8h 33m	96%	86%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	3h 44m Houston	IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460	9h 46m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	10h 00m	99%	83%
American Details →	DSM 05:12 → DFW 07:23AA 2326	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:43 → LAX 12:09AA 3181	8h 57m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 51m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	10h 27m	96%	83%
United Details →	DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521	3h 06m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	7h 43m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	2h 36m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	9h 08m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON