Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4795 at 07:11, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4795 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 07:11	LGA 11:00	14%	4%	1.1%	82%
DL 4945 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DSM 07:33	LGA 11:18	25%	14%	4.5%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	6h 01m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	5h 55m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490	7h 02m	98%	75%
American Details →	DSM 06:58 → ORD 08:34AA 4383 · flown by Republic	1h 48m Chicago	ORD 10:22 → LGA 13:48AA 3128	5h 50m	100%	75%
United Details →	DSM 15:11 → ORD 16:43UA 312	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → LGA 23:34UA 2827	7h 23m	96%	74%
American Details →	DSM 05:12 → DFW 07:23AA 2326	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056	6h 48m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589	4h 42m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	7h 24m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	48m Detroit	DTW 14:02 → LGA 15:53DL 2602	4h 28m	65%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON