Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1837 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1837 Southwest	DSM 05:11	MDW 06:38	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1838 Southwest	DSM 16:31	MDW 17:57	17%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 15m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 38m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 19m	96%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON