Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4383 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4383 DSM 06:58 → ORD 08:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2770 DSM 18:55 → ORD 20:27 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4383 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 06:58	ORD 08:34	10%	3%	1.6%	100%
OO 6024 SkyWest	DSM 06:04	ORD 07:35	10%	5%	1.9%	no record
UA 2668 United Flight history →	DSM 08:00	ORD 09:32	13%	4%	0.7%	85%
UA 2769 United	DSM 11:25	ORD 12:57	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 4955 SkyWest	DSM 10:37	ORD 12:06	19%	6%	1.4%	no record
OO 6040 SkyWest	DSM 13:28	ORD 15:00	23%	11%	2.0%	no record
YX 4769 Republic	DSM 17:57	ORD 19:33	27%	7%	1.7%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	DSM 14:44	ORD 16:13	27%	10%	1.9%	no record
UA 312 United Flight history →	DSM 15:11	ORD 16:43	27%	8%	0.7%	73%
UA 2770 United	DSM 18:55	ORD 20:27	31%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON