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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 12:57, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:57 → SEA 14:49DL 728 2h 42m Seattle SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:25DL 2367 11h 28m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734 3h 06m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 11h 50m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → DTW 13:08 → ORD 13:40AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 3h 25m Chicago ORD 17:05 → ANC 21:06AA 375 11h 58m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:58 → SEA 07:43DL 732 2h 52m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 11h 19m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → DTW 11:38 → DFW 13:34AA 3101 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399 11h 49m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → DTW 07:01 → SEA 09:00AS 344 3h 11m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:56AS 1434 11h 55m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Chicago ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461 9h 38m 87% 76%
DeltaDetails → DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203 58m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 8h 40m 84% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON