Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2375 at 05:17 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–12%.

Safest bet that day DL 2375 DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3409 DTW 15:20 → ATL 17:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2375 Delta Flight history →	DTW 05:17	ATL 07:10	4%	2%	0.4%	92%
DL 3175 Delta	DTW 09:26	ATL 11:34	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1611 Delta Flight history →	DTW 06:17	ATL 08:11	6%	2%	0.4%	87%
DL 965 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:20	ATL 09:18	7%	2%	0.4%	88%
DL 2856 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:25	ATL 12:19	8%	2%	0.4%	86%
DL 1653 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:25	ATL 10:20	8%	2%	0.4%	83%
DL 2294 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:55	ATL 23:09	10%	4%	0.4%	72%
F9 1263 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 06:10	ATL 08:40	10%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 1983 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:59	ATL 17:03	10%	3%	0.4%	78%
DL 2053 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:09	ATL 20:19	12%	4%	0.4%	75%
DL 630 Delta	DTW 20:44	ATL 22:52	12%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 1467 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:59	ATL 18:00	13%	3%	0.4%	77%
DL 2188 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	ATL 14:20	14%	3%	0.4%	71%
F9 3409 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 15:20	ATL 17:29	25%	10%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON