Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4440 DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 4166 DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4440 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:00	ATW 10:29	12%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 4159 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 21:09	ATW 21:37	14%	6%	0.7%	70%
OO 3982 SkyWest	DTW 12:51	ATW 13:17	14%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 4166 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 17:24	ATW 17:50	19%	7%	0.7%	74%
DL 4696 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 12:58	ATW 13:25	21%	5%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON