Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1839 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1839 DTW 06:36 → BNA 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 547 DTW 16:56 → BNA 17:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1839 Southwest	DTW 06:36	BNA 07:20	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2172 Southwest	DTW 10:46	BNA 11:30	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	BNA 09:11	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	BNA 13:03	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:01	BNA 16:40	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 547 Southwest	DTW 16:56	BNA 17:40	16%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON