Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1163 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1163 DTW 07:05 → BOS 09:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 1136 DTW 18:44 → BOS 20:40 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1163 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	BOS 09:02	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
B6 1236 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 07:30	BOS 09:21	9%	4%	1.0%	91%
DL 2648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	BOS 12:00	12%	4%	0.6%	83%
B6 1336 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 11:36	BOS 13:42	16%	8%	0.9%	72%
DL 1171 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:01	BOS 16:09	22%	11%	0.6%	70%
DL 1707 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:58	BOS 20:00	25%	10%	0.6%	57%
B6 1136 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 18:44	BOS 20:40	29%	16%	0.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON