Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1842 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1842 DTW 05:26 → BWI 07:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1295 DTW 17:36 → BWI 19:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1842 Southwest	DTW 05:26	BWI 07:07	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:10	BWI 08:44	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	BWI 11:47	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:05	BWI 16:41	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
F9 1516 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:50	BWI 14:26	17%	6%	1.0%	79%
WN 1295 Southwest	DTW 17:36	BWI 19:17	17%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON