Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2481 DTW 07:05 → CLT 08:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2352 DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2481 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	CLT 08:52	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 1439 American Flight history →	DTW 07:00	CLT 08:54	7%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:37	CLT 12:24	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	DTW 10:59	CLT 12:56	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 1429 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	CLT 15:55	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	DTW 14:59	CLT 16:57	15%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 2352 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 21:57	16%	4%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON