Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2726 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 2726 DTW 05:56 → DEN 07:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2431 DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2726 Southwest	DTW 05:56	DEN 07:03	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2302 United Flight history →	DTW 09:00	DEN 10:19	11%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1113 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	DEN 09:47	11%	2%	0.4%	87%
DL 1644 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:36	DEN 22:44	11%	2%	0.4%	72%
F9 2211 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 07:40	DEN 08:54	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 302 United Flight history →	DTW 15:32	DEN 16:45	13%	5%	0.5%	83%
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:42	DEN 13:45	13%	3%	0.4%	85%
WN 550 Southwest	DTW 13:56	DEN 15:00	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3565 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 20:38	DEN 21:55	14%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 2431 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:21	DEN 17:27	17%	4%	0.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON