Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1240 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1240 DTW 05:55 → DFW 07:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1441 DTW 15:59 → DFW 17:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1240 American	DTW 05:55	DFW 07:51	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 482 American Flight history →	DTW 07:58	DFW 09:54	11%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DTW 11:38	DFW 13:34	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	DFW 10:24	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 1207 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:46	DFW 22:32	15%	6%	0.6%	74%
DL 1041 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:45	DFW 14:32	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
F9 3177 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 10:37	DFW 12:39	18%	7%	1.2%	79%
AA 2822 American	DTW 19:53	DFW 21:49	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 3310 American Flight history →	DTW 16:05	DFW 18:01	21%	7%	0.8%	67%
DL 1441 Delta	DTW 15:59	DFW 17:44	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON