Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3652 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 3652 DTW 06:00 → EWR 07:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2567 DTW 17:44 → EWR 19:30 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3652 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 06:00	EWR 07:45	6%	2%	2.9%	88%
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:15	EWR 08:58	7%	3%	1.4%	90%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	EWR 11:56	11%	4%	1.0%	82%
UA 3706 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 11:22	EWR 13:29	13%	4%	2.0%	88%
YX 3681 Republic	DTW 12:53	EWR 14:44	21%	8%	1.7%	no record
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:10	EWR 15:54	24%	13%	1.0%	71%
YX 3433 Republic	DTW 15:01	EWR 16:52	26%	10%	1.5%	no record
YX 3692 Republic	DTW 16:33	EWR 18:24	29%	11%	2.0%	no record
UA 1635 United	DTW 19:13	EWR 20:58	36%	14%	0.8%	no record
DL 2567 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:44	EWR 19:30	37%	13%	0.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON